Brown has been great in his last five starts, only allowing 2 runs in his last game. The Astros have been pouring it on in the month of July, going 14-6 in their last 20 games. They have a good bullpen average and a better offensive lineup in this series. The Mariners are hitting .219 on the season against all opponents, so it will be tough for them to generate runs off of Brown and the Astros bullpen; as their offense has been the issue for this Mariners team all season. Castillo has been good for Seattle but the problem is in generating any offense against a tough Astros lineup that can score in bunches, and should be able to get some runs off of Castillo. This is going to cause issues for Seattle in this series. This series is important for both as it is going to decide top spot in the AL West, so expect Houston to be dialed in here today. The Mariners are 2-6 in their last 8 home games versus a right handed starter. Seattle are 2-6 in their last 8 games at home.

Best bet: take Houston on the moneyline (ML).