The Royals can get to Paxton and their bullpen. Paxton’s ERA of 4.50 is higher on the road, and he’s giving up too many runs and walks and he is headed for some regression. The Royals are hitting left handed pitchers well so they will get to him and the Red Sox’ bullpen average has fallen as a team and that will allow the Royals to get more runs. Boston is one of the top 5 in road offense and they can get Singer on the mound for a few runs to take this total over, as he has an ERA over 4 when facing Boston and is more susceptible to their bats. The total has gone Over in 6 of Kansas City's last 8 games when playing at home against Boston. The Over is 18-6-3 in their last 27 meetings in Kansas City. Boston has gone Over the total in eight of their last nine games when the total is set between 9.0-10.5. Both offenses are hitting right now and averaging between 6-7 runs per game in their last eight games, respectively versus opponents.

Best bet: take the Over the Total.