Kikuchi is on the mound and his home ERA is 4.66 and is hittable in this home spot. His record versus Boston in past games is he’s 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA. He has struggled against Boston in the past and their bats can get to him early if he comes out shaky. Houck hasn’t been good in several starts and he’s struggling with regression and control issues. Boston’s bullpen also ranks 26th so if he comes out with a bad start early, this game can run away from them and there will be multiple runs from both teams. Houston offensive metrics are all in the top 10 in the league so look for lots of hitting in this game. These two teams have gone Over in eight of their last ten meetings against each other and the Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Houston.

Best bet: take the Over the Total.