Vandy beat Kentucky 24-21 in 2022 so beating them again with Pavia at the helm is plausible. This should be a letdown spot for most teams off an emotional record breaking win for their program, but those teams don’t have Pavia as their quarterback. This player doesn't know how to take his foot off the gas as Pavia has an incredible ability to make plays as a dual threat quarterback, and that is always dangerous. Kentucky is off a bye week and off a big win of their own, however, they are only 10-12 against the spread at home after a bye week. Vandy has improved on both sides of the ball compared to the team that Kentucky played last season and Vandy has a decent chance to cover this spread that might be too many points because they are playing with such confidence. They have performed well against the teams they already played, they almost beat Missouri and were the better team in that game, losing the game by a missed field goal. Losing a close game to Georgia State on the road was more of making a few mistakes. Of course beating Virginia Tech at home in their season opener is also a testament to how well this team has improved. Kentucky are just 8-12 against the spread off of an upset win as a road underdog. Vandy is 25-9 against the spread in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49.

Best bet: take the points with Vanderbilt.