This matchup between Minnesota and Michigan State has all the signs of a low-scoring affair. Minnesota’s strong defense, holding opponents to just 58.9 points per game, is expected to limit Michigan State’s scoring opportunities, especially against a Michigan State offense averaging only 71.6 points per game in Big Ten play. Similarly, Michigan State has shown solid defensive capabilities, allowing just 70.3 points to Big Ten opponents and holding Top-25 teams to an average of 70.6 points per game.

Both teams have struggled offensively in recent games, with Minnesota managing just 66 points against Wichita State and Michigan State scoring 72 against Colorado, emphasizing their tendencies toward lower outputs. Shooting percentages reinforce this trend, as Minnesota shoots a modest 42.8% from the field, while Michigan State’s defense limits teams to 41.7% shooting.

Historical trends and pace of play also point toward a low total. Michigan State’s deliberate style of play slows the game down, limiting possessions, while similar matchups, like Wake Forest vs. Minnesota, saw projections for the total well under 131.5 points. We also note that Minnesota is 36th in the nation in pace of play Given these defensive strengths, offensive struggles, and slow pace, the Under is a strong play in this matchup.