This matchup sets up well for the Denver Nuggets, who have proven resilient in the underdog role with a 4-1 record against the spread when getting +3.5 points or more this season. They’ve also been solid on the moneyline, winning 60% of their games as underdogs. With Aaron Gordon back in the lineup, the Nuggets recently showed their strength by defeating the Golden State Warriors and now appear close to full strength, which should boost their overall performance.

Historically, Denver has the edge in head-to-head play, highlighted by a 130-101 blowout win over Cleveland in their last matchup. The Cavaliers face potential lineup challenges, with Max Strus and Emoni Bates possibly sidelined and Ty Jerome listed as questionable, which could weaken their depth. Additionally, Cleveland’s defense hasn’t been airtight, as evidenced by their games going over the total in 68.4% of matchups this season.

The +4.5 spread provides value for the Nuggets, who have consistently kept games close in the underdog role. With their recent momentum and Cleveland’s potential absences, backing Denver to cover looks like a strong play.