This matchup between Virginia and SMU is set to be a defensive battle, heavily influenced by Virginia’s elite defensive capabilities. The Cavaliers rank second in the ACC in points allowed, giving up just 62.3 points per game while holding opponents to 40.4% shooting. However, their offensive production has been modest, averaging only 63.0 points per game, which is 8.8 points fewer than SMU typically allows.

Virginia’s deliberate, slow-paced style further limits scoring opportunities, especially in road games where they’ve struggled, as evidenced by their 0-1 record away from home. On the other side, while SMU boasts a high-powered offense, averaging 88.3 points per game, they’re facing a Virginia defense that is significantly stronger than their average competition.

The total for this game is set at 135.5, reflecting oddsmakers’ expectations for a lower-scoring contest. Both teams are familiar with each other’s tendencies, which often leads to a cautious and tightly contested game as strategies are adjusted. Championship-like atmospheres, even in non-conference games, often result in conservative play-calling and an emphasis on defense.

With Virginia’s elite defense, SMU’s offense stepping up in competition, and the likelihood of a slower pace, the Under 135.5 is a strong play for this matchup.