This divisional matchup between the Jaguars and Titans points to Jacksonville as a strong candidate to cover the +3.5 spread, given several key factors. The Jaguars have performed better against the spread this season, covering in 6 of 12 games, compared to the Titans’ poor 2-10 ATS record, which highlights Tennessee’s struggles in meeting expectations.

Offensively, Jacksonville has a slight edge, averaging 19 points per game, compared to the Titans’ 18.4 points per game. More importantly, the Titans’ defense has been a liability, ranking 27th in the league by allowing 27.7 points per game. This defensive vulnerability, coupled with Tennessee’s negative turnover ratio, could create opportunities for the Jaguars to stay competitive or even pull off the upset.

The Jaguars have shown resilience, keeping games close even in losses, as evidenced by their 23-20 battle against the Texans. Led by quarterback Mac Jones, Jacksonville’s passing game has demonstrated the potential for big plays, which could exploit the Titans’ defensive weaknesses. Additionally, Tennessee has struggled as favorites, failing to cover in their only game as 3.5-point or greater favorites this season.

Divisional games are often tight and competitive, favoring the underdog in such scenarios. Given the Jaguars’ ability to compete, their stronger performance ATS, and the Titans’ defensive struggles, Jacksonville +3.5 presents solid value in this matchup.