Florida's dominance this season makes them a strong favorite in this matchup, coming in with an undefeated 10-0 record and riding a 10-game winning streak that includes victories over powerhouses like #6 Marquette and #2 UConn. Offensively, Florida matches up well with North Carolina, averaging 86.2 points per game (17th in the nation) compared to UNC's 86.8 (14th). However, Florida holds a clear edge on the defensive end, allowing only 65.1 points per game (46th), while North Carolina has struggled, giving up 78.7 points per game (332nd).

The Gators also dominate on the boards, averaging 41.4 rebounds per game (3rd in college basketball), winning the rebound battle by 11.2 boards per game, a key factor against North Carolina's inconsistent defense. Florida's efficiency is another deciding edge, ranking 7th overall in KenPom's metrics with elite offensive efficiency, compared to North Carolina's 28th overall ranking.

With Florida’s momentum, defensive edge, and rebounding dominance, the Gators are well-positioned to cover the spread and control this game against an inconsistent Tar Heels squad.