An excerpt from my full game article on statsalt.com:

UMass is 6-60 straight-up on the road since 2012 and 7-20-1 against the spread away from home since 2018. The Minutemen have an exciting transfer starting at QB, but Phommachanh hasn't played much since high school. They will also need to replace their leading rusher, Merriweather, making a bet on the Massachusetts offense unreasonable in Week 0.

The Aggies return an agile, playmaking signal-caller in Pavia, an experienced offensive line, and a slew of weapons at receiver. In a nationally televised game at home, they will be up for the opportunity to make an early statement on the heels of last year's Quick Lane Bowl victory. The NMSU defense was good last season, and while there are plenty of newcomers working into the mix, the UMass offense doesn't pose much of a threat.

Bet on the Aggies, 8-5 ATS in 2022, to cover on Saturday!