An excerpt from my full game article on statsalt.com:

In last season's matchup, these teams combined for 36 points, with more field goals (five) than touchdowns (3). It was a physical game, which I expect will be the case again this weekend.

The Minutemen ranked dead last in points per game last year and will turn to an inexperienced QB to run the show this year. That doesn't mean they can't make progress in 2023, but I find it unlikely they will flip the script in their first game of the season. The New Mexico State defense lost some key players but return enough talent to keep UMass in check. Whether or not any of the newcomers will make an impact is unknown, but there are enough talented players in the unit to expect a solid performance at home with ESPN in town.

UMass HC Brown will have his team locked in defensively, though. Last year, it was one of just four teams to hold NMSU under 25 points. The Minutemen led that game 10-0 until the Aggies started to get it together late in the first half. This is the side of the ball I expect Massachusetts to make a statement, keeping the score respectable and the total under 45 points.