Betting Trends: Baltimore is 53-27 straight-up as betting favorites and 28-16 SU vs. AL East opponents.

I trust Kyle Bradish much more in this game than Aaron Civale, who hasn't lasted past the fifth inning in five of his last seven starts.

The Rays pitcher is closing in on a career-high in innings pitched and will tie his career-high in starts on Thursday. He's walked six batters in two September outings (0-0 with a 6.10 ERA) and given up a long ball in three of his last four starts. The Orioles slashed .278 BA/.332 OBP/.448 SLG/.781 OPS in August and have continued to rake in September (.307/.377/.494/.871), scoring 7.0 runs/game...

Bradish hasn't allowed more than two runs since giving up three runs on August 1. He's held 23/26 opponents to three or fewer runs and sports a 2.26 ERA and 1.01 WHIP at home (10 starts). I believe he gives the Orioles a significant pitching advantage that they will ride to victory at home. At -130 odds, I feel a moneyline bet on Baltimore is fair value, as well.