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SMU vs Tulane (Mustangs +3.5)
(NCAAF) SMU vs. Tulane,
Point Spread: 3.50 | -110.00 SMU (Away)
Result: Win
Point Spread: 3.50 | -110.00 SMU (Away)
Result: Win
The Mustangs deserve more respect heading into this matchup, as their 2023 success shouldn't be overlooked just because their QB is out.
SMU's elite secondary (15th in passing yards allowed) and pass rush (40 sacks) will be x-factors, as Tulane relies heavily on its passing attack. The Mustangs are ranked in the top 20 nationally in pressure rate, Havoc, and sack percentage. The secondary surrendered just 6.0 yards per passing completion, as well. Green Wave QB Michael Pratt had a superb season (21 TDs and four INTs), but he's also been inconsistent and is coming off one of his worst performances (9-for-22 passing).
Tulane's passing attack could be without two of its main receiving threats, as Lawrence Keys III and Jha'Quan Jackson are questionable to play. The pass-catching duo combined for 57 receptions, 1,020 receiving yards, and 11 TDs, so if they can't play or are limited by injuries, the Green Wave will be hampered.
Another factor to consider is that Tulane doesn't run the football effectively. Without a complementary ground game, the Mustangs' pass rush will be unleashed. When pressured this season, Pratt was much less efficient, completing 44.8 percent of his passes for 5.8 yards, compared to a 74.4 completion percentage for 9.9 yards when not under duress. Considering he was pressured on 31 percent of his dropbacks, the Tulane offensive line could be in trouble against this SMU pass rush.
While the Mustangs' offense will be running at less than 100 percent without their starting QB, backup Kevin Jennings performed well enough in relief this season (18-for-24 passing for 330 yards, three TDs, and zero INTs). The Tulane secondary is vulnerable, too, as it ranked 100th in passing yards allowed. Even without Preston Stone, SMU can be counted on to move the chains and finish its drives (16th in red zone scoring percentage).
SMU's elite secondary (15th in passing yards allowed) and pass rush (40 sacks) will be x-factors, as Tulane relies heavily on its passing attack. The Mustangs are ranked in the top 20 nationally in pressure rate, Havoc, and sack percentage. The secondary surrendered just 6.0 yards per passing completion, as well. Green Wave QB Michael Pratt had a superb season (21 TDs and four INTs), but he's also been inconsistent and is coming off one of his worst performances (9-for-22 passing).
Tulane's passing attack could be without two of its main receiving threats, as Lawrence Keys III and Jha'Quan Jackson are questionable to play. The pass-catching duo combined for 57 receptions, 1,020 receiving yards, and 11 TDs, so if they can't play or are limited by injuries, the Green Wave will be hampered.
Another factor to consider is that Tulane doesn't run the football effectively. Without a complementary ground game, the Mustangs' pass rush will be unleashed. When pressured this season, Pratt was much less efficient, completing 44.8 percent of his passes for 5.8 yards, compared to a 74.4 completion percentage for 9.9 yards when not under duress. Considering he was pressured on 31 percent of his dropbacks, the Tulane offensive line could be in trouble against this SMU pass rush.
While the Mustangs' offense will be running at less than 100 percent without their starting QB, backup Kevin Jennings performed well enough in relief this season (18-for-24 passing for 330 yards, three TDs, and zero INTs). The Tulane secondary is vulnerable, too, as it ranked 100th in passing yards allowed. Even without Preston Stone, SMU can be counted on to move the chains and finish its drives (16th in red zone scoring percentage).
