Atlanta SP Spencer Schwellenbach in two starts vs. Philly this year: 2-0 with three runs allowed and 15 strikeouts in 12.2 innings. He has allowed three or fewer runs in six consecutive outings and has a 3.04 ERA (Expected ERA), 0.68 points lower than his actual ERA.

I believe he can outpitch or at least keep pace with Aaron Nola (3.87 xERA, 0.57 points higher than his actual ERA) before handing the ball to the Braves bullpen, which has the third-lowest ERA (3.35) and the fifth-lowest WHIP (1.20) in MLB.

Atlanta's offense warmed up in August (4.5 runs/game), trending in the right direction after injuries derailed their season. This will be the Braves' fourth look at Nola this season, with the most recent matchup on Aug. 21. If they can rattle his cage early, they'll have a great shot at winning straight-up tonight, splitting the four-game series with their division rivals.