I bet Cleveland last week, and while the return of Nick Chubb makes them kinda intriguing at 6, he has been out too long to expect much from him this week. Besides, Deshaun Watson has been historically awful, Amari Cooper is gone and Cleveland is injury-plagued on both sides of the ball. What's stopping Joe Burrow (second in EPA per play and success rate since Week 2) from dropping a huge number on this Browns defense on Sunday? The Browns defense is a far cry from last year's stop unit, ranking 21st in defensive DVOA while allowing the 14th-highest EPA per play. Last season, they ranked second and first in those metrics.

I'll lay the points with Cincy on Sunday.