I'm backing the Colts ML this week and I also prefer the over at 43.5.

Indy will run the hell out of the football against the Jets' porous run defense (27th in DVOA), which isn't exactly new — teams are running the ball 50% of the time against them (third-highest run rate in the NFL). Jonathan Taylor is ready for a breakout game, and the Colts will value the run more with Anthony Richardson back under center. That said, while I bet on the Indy ML before the switch from Joe Flacco back to Richardson, I prefer the move and believe the Colts' offense will shine on Sunday!

As for NY, this is a friendly matchup for the offense, as Indianapolis ranks 22nd in DVOA against the pass. NY passes at the fourth-highest rate in the league, as well.

In other words, we should see enough scoring to push the total to 44 combined points.