Betting Trends: Non-Dallas Thanksgiving favorites are 30-10 ATS (75%) by almost a touchdown a game since 2007, and Thanksgiving night favorites are 13-4 ATS all time (77%). Dolphins HC Mike McDaniel is also 5-9 ATS (36%) against teams over .500 and Tua Tagovailoa is 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS in games under 40 degrees.

Green Bay is on a different level than Miami and the Dolphins will have a tough time at night in Wisconsin. Miami's run defense is bottom-ten in the NFL, meaning Josh Jacobs is bound for a big-time Turkey Day performance. GB ranks top four by DVOA in both rushing and passing, while Tua struggles in cold weather and doesn't have a reliable run game to lean on.

Give me the Packers plus the points!