I'm confident Duke is laying too many points after a tough stretch vs. blue-bloods in three of its last four games. The Redhawks have won two of their last three and while they are 2-4 straight-up, they have played all of their opponents close, losing by 18 combined points in those four losses. Per KenPom, they have been the unluckiest team in college basketball this season, ranking 364th in the site's Luck Rating, and have played a pretty solid schedule (101st in strength of schedule rating).

Seattle can hit the three-ball (34.8%) and has size, with seven players 6-foot-8 or taller, which is important going up against Duke's roster, which is the tallest in CBB this season. Ranked 125th in KenPom's net rating, including 151st in offensive efficiency and 131st in defensive efficiency, I believe the Redhawks, who play at a similar pace as Duke, have enough fortitude to keep the final score closer than the spread suggests.