Houston's D will be too much for Duke. The Blue Devils (38% from three) haven't faced a perimeter defense like the Cougars and won't find it much easier to score inside (43.1% opponent 2PT%). H-Town's isolation D is also going to cause problems for the Devils.

The Cougars' offense can be inefficient, but Duke ranks 109th in opponent 2PT% and 70th in opponent 3PT%. They'll find the necessary points to win and cover the 4.5-pt spread.