The Timberwolves shot 71% on long midrange shots (100th percentile) in Game 1, hitting a lot of tough, contested shots to win. I bet on Minnesota in game one partially due to my belief Anthony Edwards would break out after struggling in previous meetings with Phoenix. While that was the case on Saturday, I won't bet on a similar scenario in game two.

Phoenix won both previous meetings, scoring 133 points in the first meeting (Nov. 15) and holding Minnesota to just 87 points in the second contest (Apr. 05). The Suns shot 60 percent overall in the first matchup, including 55 percent from long range, and held the T-Wolves under 20 percent from beyond the arc. In the second game, Kevin Durant was all over Edwards, utilizing his length to hold the Minnesota superstar to 6-for-19 shooting.

I expect a similar outcome tonight. The Suns will cut back on their turnovers and are due for positive shooting regression, especially at the rim, where they shot 42.9% (zeroth percentile). I'm also predicting a much better performance by Devin Booker (5-for-16 in Game 1). With the Suns ML available at +130 odds and better, I see this wager as both a winner and a great value, making it my best NBA bet of the day!