The Padres hit right-handed pitchers much better (.271 BA/.332 OBP/.411 SLG/.743 OPS) than left-handers (.183/.282/.335/.617), and have fared well on the road in 2024 (.274/.343/.389/.732). Arizona SP Brandon Pfaadt is due for negative regression, in my opinion, after a few solid starts. The 25-year-old is home run prone (22 HR allowed in 19 appearances last year and five HR in six starts this year) and was roughed up in starts against the Braves and Cardinals earlier this season (11 runs on 15 hits and three HRs combined).

I also expect a better performance from San Diego SP Michael King. He had three poor outings due to an inability to keep the ball in the yard (8 HR allowed) but the 28-year-old dominated against the Giants and Brewers. His first season with the Padres could be going smoother, but I feel confident he's due for positive regression. Last season, he made a strong impression with the Yankees when the club moved him into the starting rotation, pitching to a 1.30 ERA and 1.01 WHIP with 39 strikeouts in five September starts (27.2 IP).

This D-Backs lineup hasn't faced King before. Like Joe Musgrove in his last start (a bet I cashed on Wednesday), I predict a better performance tomorrow from King. Arizona is slashing .214/.304/.339/.643 vs. right-handed pitchers, a significant drop-off compared to its splits vs. southpaws (.314/.374/.486/.860).

With that said, I'm betting on the San Diego moneyline on Saturday night!