Betting Trends: The under is 23-13-1 when the Mariners are home betting favorites and 17-9 (65.4%) in their division games. The under is also 26-18-1 (59.1) in Houston's road games and 17-12-1 (58.6%) in its division games.

If Seattle leads the scoring charge, I feel confident the under will cash. The Mariners rank 28th in runs scored and average just 3.6 runs at home. Valdez has picked up a loss in three of his last four starts against Seattle but he has only allowed more than three runs in 2 of his 12 outings against the M's. 

Houston has been befuddled by Kirby, who has been excellent both at home and in night games (2.88 ERA and 0.90 WHIP) this year. The Astros have managed just nine total runs in their five losses to the Mariners this season, scoring four or fewer runs in six of the seven contests.

The total may be low, but it's justified. Bet the under!