ASA's 10* MLB Run Line
(MLB) Baltimore vs. Philadelphia,
Point Spread: -1.50 | -101.00 Philadelphia (Home)
Result: Loss
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5 runs) over Baltimore Orioles, Thursday at 4:05 PM ET

The Phillies have struggled early this season but the Orioles are certainly no powerhouse and this is the ideal situation to back the home team and expect a rout. Philadelphia is nearly a 2 to 1 favorite on the money line but on the run line we get them down to a price in the pick'em range and there is plenty of support for expecting a win by 2 or more runs here. 4 of the Phillies 5 wins this season have come by a margin of 4 or more runs! When they win they generally win big. Also, Philadelphia has lost each of the last two games against Baltimore and the Phillies are 2-0 this season when they enter a game off back to back losses and each of the 2 wins came by a blowout margin. Jake Arrieta has been a stronger starter at home than on the road since coming to the Phillies and he is healthy again and coming off a dominating performance against the Braves at Citizens Bank Park. He'll be opposed by Thomas Eshelman who, though drafted by the Astros, actually came up through the Phillies farm system. But in 2018 at AAA Lehigh Valley he went 2-13 with a 5.84 ERA. In his major league appearances (12 games, 5 starts) Eshelman has a 6.02 ERA. The way Arrieta is dealing right now and the way Eshelman has struggled, as well as the situational factors here, this one sets up to be all Phillies! Bet the Phillies -1.5 runs in afternoon action Thursday.