NBA 10* Eastern Conference Game of the Year
(NBA) Miami vs. Milwaukee,
Point Spread: -3.00 | -110.00 Miami (Away)
Result: Win
ASA top play 10* on: Miami Heat -3 over Milwaukee Bucks, 6:30PM ET

Giannis or no Giannis we are heavy on the Miami Heat in Game 5 Tuesday. I am going to start with coaching. Mike Budenholzer is clearly a great regular season and players coach but is not a tactician and isn’t great with playoff adjustments. It showed last year in the Eastern Conference Finals against the Raptors when he did not figure out a way to counter the Raptors “wall” defense against Giannis. His lack of game management has reared its ugly head again this year. I am thoroughly convinced if we flipped coaches in this series, it’s over already with the Bucks up 4-0. The NBA is about getting the matchup you can exploit, and Coach Bud just does not seem to figure it out. I am screaming at the TV for the Bucks to use whoever Tyler Herro is guarding to screen for Middleton or even Lopez to get a switch and a mismatch, but it did not happen until the final possession of OT. Herro made some big 3’s down the stretch in Game 4 but he’s a liability on defense. And why haven’t the Bucks used Brook Lopez in the post instead of having him stand in the corner for 3’s and NOT offensive rebound (7ft tall and 7 O-boards in series)? The coaching advantage for the Heat with Eric Spoelstra is glaring and unfortunately for Bucks fans, their season ends today. The Bucks got a huge jump start from Giannis in Game 4 before he went down with an injured ankle. Then Khris Middleton took over in the 3rd and OT periods but I’m not betting he can duplicate those numbers (36-points on 12 of 28 shooting). The Heat have averaged 1.140 points per possession against the Bucks which is the best overall O-efficiency numbers in this round of the Playoffs and makes the Bucks the worst defensive efficiency team in this round. Miami’s defensive numbers are obviously very good as they’ve held the Bucks offense (1.124PPP regular season) to just 1.080 points per possession. Miami has been outstanding off a SU loss this season with a 23-7 SU record and a winning margin of +7.4PPG. The Heat clearly have a matchup advantage over the Bucks as they’ve beaten them 5 of seven meetings this season and even though they had an average shooting night in Game 4, and the Bucks shot extremely well at 49%, they still almost won in OT. Jimmy Butler and company win this game rather easily and advance to face either the Celtics or Raptors.