#252 ASA PLAY 8* ON Chicago +3 over Indianapolis, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - We were on Atlanta over Chicago last week and things looked great with the Birds leading by 16 with less than 8:00 remaining in the game. Bears head coach made the decision to switch QB’s during the game as Trubisky was play terrible as we felt he would. The move to Nick Foles helped do us in as he led Chicago to 3 straight TD drives all in the span of 5:00 minutes giving the Bears a 30-26 win. Foles will be starting this week and we now like the Bears in this home underdog spot. We make much of Chicago’s weak 3-0 record as the teams they’ve beaten are now 1-8 combined. However, is Indy’s 2-1 mark any better? The teams they’ve played are now 1-8 combined and their only road game was a loss @ Jacksonville who is 0-2 since that win including a thrashing at the hands of the Dolphins. We’re not sure why the Colts are favored here. We have Chicago as a 1 point chalk in our power ratings. Indy’s defense looks fantastic thus far as they lead the NFL in YPG allowed however we feel that stat is misleading. Two of the teams they’ve faced, Jacksonville & NY Jets, rank near the bottom in total offense (Jets are at the bottom). Last year Indy finished 16th in total defense so a jump to #1 could be a bit of a mirage. Chicago’s defense ranks in the middle of the pack right now but we feel as things play out we’ll see their defense is better than the Colts. Two of the three teams Chicago has played have top tier QB’s and fairly explosive offenses (Falcons & Lions). We also like the Bears offense much better with Foles at QB. Chicago has been a home dog 16 times since the start of the 2016 season and they are 12-3-1 ATS in those games. On top of that, 3-0 teams playing at home in game 4 are 33-15-1 ATS (41-8 SU record) if playing a team outside their division. Take the Bears here.