ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Ole Miss Rebels (-) over Vanderbilt, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET: Game #185

This line may seem surprising to some considering that the Rebels record of 1-4 certainly doesn't seem worthy of this large of a point spread on the road. However, the key here is just how truly bad this Vanderbilt team is right now on both sides of the ball. The Commodores simply will not be able to keep up with a high-powered Ole Miss offense. The Rebels 34.8 points per game average is more than the TOTAL points that Vandy has scored all season! Indeed, Vanderbilt has totaled only 26 points in their 3 games. Though losing to A & M by just a 5 point margin in their first game is, on the surface, impressive, turnovers played a role in that game and helped keep Vandy in it. In their next two games the Vandy problems were not masked by turnover differential and they got blown out by a combined score of 82-14 in those two games. The Commonders defense allows 7.25 yards per play and their offense averages only 3.95 yards per play. This ranks Vandy among the worst teams in the nation on both sides of the ball. Ole Miss comes into this game angry about their 1-4 record on the season and also about feeling a bit "cheated" by a key officiating blunder in last week's loss to Auburn. With a bye week on deck, and a ton of penned up frustration to let loose, the Rebels are ready to completely obliterate the next team they see. That said, this Commodores team is in for a long afternoon even though they are on their home field. The Rebels, given the situation, will simply not let up here, and this is an offense that is averaging 521 yards per game which is more than double what the Commodores average at 257 per game. Vanderbilt also has been heavily impacted by covid issues this season and will be playing for the first time in 3 weeks! The Commodores lost by 25 at Ole Miss last season and our computer math model is forecasting a similar point differential in this one even though this game is at Vanderbilt. Ensuring the proper focus here for Ole Miss is the fact they did lose their last visit to Vandy two years ago and they have been reminded of that heading into this game. Though they lost that one by a TD it was a fluke loss as the Rebels outgained Vanderbilt by nearly 200 yards in that one! Last season, by the way, the Rebels outgained the Commodores by 242 yards. The point being that the Commodores have proven time and time again that they can not stop this Ole Miss potent attack and their ground game is phenomenal this season with two of the top rushers in the nation! On the other side of the line, the Rebels defense has been a problem this season but facing one of the worst offenses in the nation will prove to be the perfect remedy. That said, we see no way in the world that the Commodores are going to be able to keep up with an Ole Miss offense that is highly motivated and averaged 42 points in its first 3 games this season and that included games against Florida, Kentucky, and Alabama. Lay the big points and look for a dominating road rout in this Saturday afternoon SEC match-up.