#451/452 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 51.5 Points – Minnesota @ New Orleans, Friday at 4:30 PM ET - Both of these teams are coming off high scoring games last week and we like to look at the UNDER the following week in this situation if at all possible. We think this sets up nicely for the UNDER while most will look at last week’s results and lean heavily toward the over. When Minnesota clicks on offense, it’s because their running game is rolling. If that happens, it opens up QB Cousins to have a big game with the pressure squarely taken off his back. Last week the Vikings were able to put up 199 yards on the ground vs Chicago and their offense looked very good scoring 27 points. This week they face a Saints defense that only allows 95 YPG on the ground and ranks as the #2 rush defense DVOA on Football Outsiders. In games where Minnesota didn’t top 120 yards rushing, they averaged just 20 PPG which is nearly a full TD below their season average. The Saints were in a shootout last week but that was expected as they were playing the Chiefs. New Orleans lost the game 32-29 but those 29 points came in just 285 total yards of offense. Drew Brees was shaky at best in his return completing only 14 passes (less than 50% completion rate) and he still has problems pushing the ball deep down the field ranking 18th in yards per pass attempt. The New Orleans defense played very well actually despite giving up 32 points they held KC to only 4.5 YPP. The Chiefs were able to speed that game up into a fast paced affair that had 141 offensive plays run. KC ran a ridiculous 91 plays which is 25 above their season average. Thus why they were able to score 32 points on just 4.5 YPP. This one should come in at a much slower pace as New Orleans & Minnesota both are in the top 7 in rushing attempts per game (which slows the game down and speeds up the clock) and they each rank 20th or lower in pace. Prior to last week’s game vs KC the Saints had played in 7 straight games where the combined score was 46 or lower. We see this one playing out similar to last year’s playoff match up in New Orleans where the teams combined for 40 points in regulation (Vikings won 26-20 in OT) and the two combined for only 611 total yards. Take the UNDER in this one.