#461/462 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 48 Points – Miami @ Las Vegas, Saturday at 8:15 PM ET - With this total set at 47.5 or 48 points, it’s the lowest total set on a Vegas game since November 1st when they had a total of 48 set @ Cleveland in gale warning winds. The Raider defense has been terrible this year especially as of late. For the season they rank 24th or lower in YPG allowed, YPP allowed, and PPG allowed (30 PPG). Over their last 5 games Las Vegas is allowing 36 PPG. The Miami offense doesn’t have great numbers, but they’ve been much better over the last month or so. Since Tagovailoa took over as the starter, his first 4 games the Fins averaged only 240 YPG of total offense and his last 3 they have averaged 386 total YPG. They rushed for 250 yards last week vs New England and we expect Miami to have their best offensive output since Tua took over vs the leaky Raider defense. The Miami scoring defense has great numbers. They are #1 in the NFL allowing 18.4 PPG however their overall numbers come nowhere close to matching up with those scoring numbers. They rank 18th in total defense, 22nd in YPP defense, 24th in yards per pass attempt allowed, and 26th in yards per rush allowed. Those are NOT the overall numbers of a team that is allowing 18.4 PPG. They’ve been very lucky in that regard. Miami has played the Jets, Broncos, Bengals, and Patriots (all ranked 27th or lower in scoring) 4 of their last 5 games holding 3 of those 4 to 12 points or less which has really helped their overall numbers. Against some of the better offenses they’ve faced this year, Miami has given up 33 (KC), 31 (Buffalo), 31 (Seattle), and 31 (Arizona) points. The Raiders have scored at least 27 points in 6 of their last 7 games and it looks like they’ll get starting QB Carr back for this game. Don’t be surprised if they use both Carr and Mariota in different packages keeping the Miami defense off balance. These two have gone OVER the total each of the last 6 meetings and the Raiders are 7-0-1 to the OVER their last 8 games as a home underdog. OVER is the play.