#676 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Louisville -2 over Duke, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET - We’re not jumping off this train yet. We’ve gone against Duke in each of their last 2 games and cashed on both @ Va Tech and @ Pitt. Now they are playing their 3rd straight road game @ Louisville on Saturday. The Devils continue to be overvalued as they are now 1-8 ATS on the season and their spread losses have come by an average of 12 PPG. In other words, they aren’t even close to covering. Louisville is coming off a home loss on Monday vs a red hot FSU team. The Noles are playing FAR better than Duke right now and the Cards were favored by 4 in that game. Now laying only 2 points vs a Duke team that is really struggling. The Devils aren’t built to win on the road right now. They aren’t a good 3-point shooting team (223rd nationally) and they don’t defend the 3 point line well (295th nationally). They don’t get to the FT line with only 13.7% of their points coming from the line (332nd nationally) so they have to shoot really well to have a chance to win and they simply aren’t a great shooting team. On top of that, Duke has been sending teams to the line a lot in ACC play with almost 20% of opponents points coming from the stripe. The Devils also rank dead last in the league in defensive efficiency (conference games). The Cards are every bit as good as Va Tech & Pitt, the 2 teams that just beat Duke (by 7 & 6 points) and coming off a home less sets them up for a solid performance. We fade Duke again on Saturday.