ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 6 Goals – Chicago Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay Lightning, Thursday at 8 PM ET – Yesterday's game ended up a 3-2 overtime win for the Lightning. Both teams used their top goalie last night. That means their only choice tonight is to go with those guys again (unlikely) in the 2nd of a back to back or go to their back-ups (likely) tonight. That being said, we like the over plenty in this one. The Lightning back-up is Curtis McElhinney. He allowed 4 goals in a 5-2 loss to Chicago the last time he faced them. The Blackhawks back-up is Malcolm Subban. He allowed 5 goals when he most recently faced TB and that was in January. In the other half of that same 2-game set in mid-January, the Hawks also used their other netminder Collin Delia and he also allowed 5 goals to Tampa! The point is that when it is not starting goalie Kevin Lankinen between the pipes for Chicago, the Lightning have feasted. If Lankinen did go tonight it would be the 2nd night of a back to back and that is not a good situation. If Subban goes he allowed 5 goals in his most recent start and that was also his only home start this season. If the Lightning did go with Andrei Vasilevskiy tonight it would be the 2nd night of a back to back and that is not a good situation. If McElhinney goes, he is coming off a good start but allowed 6 goals in the start right before that and also struggled against Chicago when he most recently faced them. We have a total of 6 goals to work with here and Tampa Bay is off back to back low-scoring games but this was on the heels of a 14-game stretch in which TB scored at least 3 goals in 12 of the 14 games! The Blackhawks lost last night's game on home ice to these Bolts in OT by a 3-2 final but entered that game scoring an average of 4 goals per game on home ice this season. Given all of the above, we expect each team to get to 3 goals in this one and that would lead to at least a 4-3 final here. Tampa Bay's only other road back to back this season saw the 2nd game total 7 goals. Chicago's only other home back to back this season saw the 2nd game total 9 goals! Based on value and the situation - and the fact the markets have not yet adjusted to a total of 6.5 goals - still holding solidly at 6 as of mid-morning, we like OVER here.