#963/964 ASA PLAY ON Under 10.5 Runs – Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays, Thursday at 7:07 PM ET – These two pitchers have big ERA numbers on the season but that hides how well their more recent outings have been and we have a big number to work with here.  Anthony Kay's two most recent home starts have seen him allow a total of just 2 earned runs on 5 hits in 8 innings of work!  He'll take advantage of facing an Orioles team that got shut out the plate yesterday and that was at home.  Now this Baltimore club has taken to the road where they have been held to 3 or less runs in 9 of last 12 games!  So the Orioles traveled to Buffalo for this game after playing in Baltimore last night and the Blue Jays were in an even tougher travel situation as they came all the way from down south in Miami where they played last night.  Certainly there could be some "sleepy bats" at the plate for this one and Toronto will face an improving Dean Kremer in this one.  Like Kay, he has a high ERA on the season but has shown improvement in recent outings.  Kremer, in fact, had a stint at AAA Norfolk that has seemed to turn him around.  He gave up only 3 hits in 8 and 2 / 3 innings in 2 outings there earlier this month.  Now, after returning to the Orioles, Kremer has given up only 7 hits in 11 and 1 / 3 innings and that includes a solid start versus the Blue Jays in his most recent outing.  Toronto has lost 5 of the last 6 home games and averaged scoring only 3 runs per game in the 5 defeats.  That said, all signs point to an under here.  Per our computer math model, this game lands around 8 to 9 runs and even if it reaches 10 that is still a winning ticket based on the 10.5 that is posted at most books as of late morning Thursday.  We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one!  Bet the UNDER