#685/686 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 135 Points – Louisville vs Michigan State, Wed at 7:15 PM ET - We have 2 of the best performing defenses in college basketball facing off in this game and we expect this one to stay under the total. MSU ranks 2nd nationally in defensive efficiency and Louisville ranks 18th. Sparty has stayed under this number of 135 in 4 of their last 5 games. Their only game during that stretch that went over this number was vs Eastern Michigan who plays at a very fast pace and has a defense ranked 254th in efficiency. The only 2 teams this year to top 70 points vs MSU’s defense were Kansas & Baylor who rank 5th and 6th nationally in offensive efficiency. The offense they are facing tonight, Louisville, ranks 93rd in offensive efficiency. The Cards have allowed more than 67 points just once this season and in their 2 most recent games vs Maryland (60th in offensive efficiency) and Mississippi State (49th in offensive efficiency) this defense allowed just 55 and 58 points. Both teams struggle to shoot the 3 well both ranking below 210th and both defend the arc with neither allowing 30%. We don’t expect many points from deep tonight. Both are inside the top 23 in eFG% defense while each offense ranks outside the top 160 in that category. Each of these defenses makes it very tough to get shots allowing a shot attempt every 18+ seconds which ranks them both outside the top 300 in defensive pace. MSU & Louisville have combined to play 13 games this year with only 4 going over the total. Another lower scoring game here that we project to land in the high 120’s.