#215 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oregon State -7 over Utah State, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - USU could be a bit overvalued here after destroying San Diego State in the MWC Championship game a few weeks ago. SDSU was not at full strength for the game with a number of players out with Covid which not only affected the game, but their practice situation leading up to the game. USU played the much weaker schedule especially down the stretch where they faced just 1 bowl team in their final 7 regular season games and that was Wyoming, a game USU lost 44-17. The Aggies defense does not match up well with Oregon State’s offense. They ranked 82nd nationally stopping the run (allowed 163 YPG) yet faced only 3 teams ranked in the top 40 in rushing and 6 teams ranked below 95th in rushing. In their games vs top 40 rushing teams they allowed 437 yards on the ground (Air Force), 363 (Wyoming), and 221 (BYU). Oregon State averages 219 YPG rushing which is 13th nationally and will control the trenches here. The overall numbers favor OSU as well despite playing the much tougher schedule. The Beavers finished with a YPP differential of +0.7 and USU was +0.2 for the year. Motivation is always something that needs to be addressed in early bowl games and both will bring their best here. Many times a team from a Power 5 conference may not be thrilled to be playing a team from a lesser conference but that won’t be the case here as Oregon State has not been to a bowl game since 2014 so they are thrilled to be here. If both teams bring it, OSU is the better team and should win by more than a TD.