#456 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona "pick-em" over Indianapolis, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Great line value with the Cardinals here. We’re laying only 1 point (some spot are at pick-em) with Arizona at home. The line is short because Arizona is coming off 2 straight losses including one vs a bad Detroit team last Sunday. They outgained both LA (by 91 yards) and Detroit (by 61 yards). Last week they were shut out on downs at the Detroit 3, 9, and 30 yard lines. A week earlier vs Rams they were shut out on downs at the LA 14 & 37 and threw a pick at the LA 4 yard line. As you can see they’ve had their chances. On the other end, Indy beat a red hot New England team at home last week. Buy low (Arizona), sell high (Indy) here. To put this number is perspective, let’s look at some of Arizona’s home game spreads and some of Indy’s road game spreads. The Cards were favored by 3 points vs the Rams just a few weeks ago. They were also favored by -6 vs SF and -6.5 vs Green Bay. Indy was +7 @ Buffalo a few weeks ago, +3.5 @ SF, and +7.5 @ Baltimore. You get the point. Football Outsiders DVOA has these teams ranked dead even (8th and 9th) so no home field advantage is factored into this line. These 2 have played nearly identical SOS’s and Zona is +54 YPG and +0.4 YPP while Indy is +18 YPG and +0.1 YPP. Arizona has been the better team for most of the season and now because they’ve had back to back down games, we’re getting them basically as a pick-em at home. Cards win this one.