#182 ASA TOP PLAY ON Mississippi State -3.5 over Texas A&M, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Well we went against A&M last week and should have won and we’re coming back this week and fading this overrated team. Last Saturday they were favored by 2 vs Arkansas and won 23-21 pushing the spread. The fact is, Arkansas completely outplayed the Aggies with a total yardage edge of 415 to 343 and a 244 to 192 advantage on the ground. One play changed the entire game for the underdog Razors. With Arkansas up 14-7 very late in 2nd quarter and driving for a score inside the A&M 5 yard line. Razor QB fumbles and it’s returned 97 yards for a TD for a 14 point swing. Arkansas also missed a 42 yard FG at the end that would have won the game. Arkansas was the correct side in that game. In the 2 weeks prior A&M lost at home to App State and then beat Miami by 8 but the Aggies were outgained by 130+ yards in that game and beaten in the trenches allowing 4.9 YPC while gaining just 3.9 YPC. That’s the same App State team that needed a hail mary 2 weeks ago to beat Troy and then lost at home to James Madison last week (we were on JMU). That’s also the same Miami team that lost by 14 points at home vs Middle Tenn State last Saturday. A&M could easily be sitting with a 1-3 record right now. This will be their first true road game of the season and they have Alabama on deck so not an ideal situation. The Aggie offense has been bad to say the least. If we take out their defensive and special teams TD’s this year, the actual offense has scored only 5 touchdowns in 3 games (minus their FCS game vs Sam Houston). The Aggies have been outgained in each of their 3 FBS games by a total of more than 300 yards. They’ve already switched QB’s from King to Johnson and neither has been good. This offense currently ranks outside the top 100 in total yards, passing yards, rushing yards, and PPG. They face a Mississippi State team that is very dangerous offensively. The Bulldogs returned 71% of their offensive production from a team that averaged 29 PPG last year including QB Rogers who threw for almost 5000 yards last year and 36 TD’s. This year he’s already thrown for 1400 yards and 16 TD’s and the Bulldogs are averaging 37 PPG. The MSU defense was solid last season allowing 345 YPG and they returned over 80% of their production on that side of the ball (5th most nationally). This season they are allowing 319 YPG and we don’t see A&M having much success on offense. Last year MSU went into Texas A&M and won the game 26-22 outgaining the Aggies 438 to 297. We don’t see anything changing this year. Mississippi State gets the win and cover at home.