ASA top play on 10* - #227/228 OVER 43 Air Force vs. Baylor, Thursday 7:30 PM ET - We are betting Over on this game and expect both teams to get into the 20’s. The number itself stood out to us immediately when we looked at past results for both teams and the lines that were posted on those contests. For instance, Air Force played San Diego State the last game of the season and the O/U was set at 43. San Diego State isn’t on the same planet offensively as Baylor as the Aztecs were 109th in scoring (21PPG), 116th in total YPG and 119th in passing. AF also played Colorado State at the end of the season, who is worse than SDST offensively and that O/U was also 43. The Bears averaged just under 34PPG with an offense that ranked 37th in YPG gained, 61st in passing and 33rd in rushing. Baylor played in one game this season that had a Total below 52 and that was against Iowa State. ISU’s defense is significantly better than an overrated Falcons defense. Air Force is 1st in the nation defensively in YPG allowed 1st against the pass, 8th versus the run and allowed just 13.3PPG. BUT the vast majority of the teams they’ve faced have been horrible on offense making the Falcons defensive statistics very misleading. Baylor wasn't as good defensively this season (recently fired D-coordinator) after allowing 26.6PPG on the season and being near average in most defensive categories. The Bears allowed 29 plus points in the last four games of the season.