NFL Thursday Smash
(NFL) Ravens (BAL) vs. Chiefs (KC),
Total: 47.00 | -110.00 Under
Result: Push
ASA play on UNDER 47 Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City, Thursday 8:20 PM ET - This is a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship which the Chiefs won 17-10. That game had an O/U of 44 with the Under cashing easily. In that game, the Ravens managed 336 total yards and 6.3YPP. They dominated time of possession 37:30 compared to the Chiefs 22:30, but three turnovers to zero doomed the Ravens chances. Kansas City had a tough time moving the ball against this Ravens defense with 319-total yards of offense at 4.5YPP. While both of these offenses get most of the attention, it’s the defenses that really set them apart from the rest of the league. Baltimore was 1st in defensive DVOA a year ago, KC was 7th. The Ravens allowed just 4.6YPP last season, the 2nd lowest number in the league behind the Jets. The Chiefs D gave up only 4.8PPP which ranked 5th. Teams had a very hard time sustaining drives against both teams with the Chiefs allowing the 5th lowest 3rd down conversion percentage at 35.53%, the Ravens ranked 9th at 36.52%. On average it took teams 18.4 yards gained to score 1-points against Baltimore which was best in the NFL. Kansas City wasn’t far behind that at 17.6-Yards Per Point. Another misconception about the Chiefs is that they are an Over team, when in fact they have stayed Under in 15 of their last 20 regular season home games, including 7 straight. KC is Under at home against the AFC in 9 of their last 10. The Ravens have stayed Under in 5 of their last 7 regular season road games and 7 of their last 11. There will be a lot of noise surrounding the two starting QB’s here in Jackson/Mahomes and the offenses but don’t buy into it and side with the defenses and Under.