#464 ASA PLAY ON Atlanta Falcons +1.5 over LA Chargers, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Great situation for the Falcons here as a home dog as they are coming off a bye (2 losses prior to the bye so extra motivation) and they are catching the Chargers traveling on a short week after a physical game vs the Ravens. LA had played one of the easiest schedules to date (30th SOS) going into their game with Baltimore (we were on the Ravens). Baltimore won by 7 but dominated much more than the final score indicated outgaining the Chargers 6.5 to 4.8 YPP while rushing for 212 yards on 37 carries. LA also lost a key offensive cog in that loss with RB Dobbins going on the IR this week. The Falcons are coming off an embarrassing effort losing @ Denver 38-6 heading into their bye week. They remain in 1st place in the NFC South but only by 1 game over Tampa who plays Carolina this week so a huge home game for the Falcons who head out on the road for 3 of the next 4 weeks after this one. Atlanta has a top 10 offense (both YPG and YPP) and we like them to move the ball well here vs a Charger defense that has good overall numbers but played a very easy slate of offenses prior to the last 2 weeks when Cincy and Baltimore put up 27 and 30 points respectively. Atlanta looks very healthy coming out of the bye while LA’s defense has a number of players banged up and they are playing their 8th consecutive week. Atlanta has a slight better YPP margin (+0.2 to +0.1) despite playing the more difficult schedule. We like the Falcons to win this game at home.