#203/204 ASA PLAY ON Under 48.5 Points – California vs UNLV, LA Bowl on Wednesday at 9 PM ET - We expect Cal’s offense to struggle in this one vs a underrated UNLV defense. The offense wasn’t great to begin with ranking 82nd in YPP and 82nd in scoring (26 PPG) but that was with QB Mendoza under center. They relied very heavily on him this season as he attempted nearly 400 passes and threw for over 3,000 yards. He won’t play in this game as he’s in the portal and his back up in out as well. That means 3rd string Harris, a transfer from Ohio U who didn’t start there, will start in this game. The Bears topped their season average of 26 PPG only 4 times this season (minus FCS opponents) and 3 of those were vs defenses ranked 97th or lower. And again, that was with Mendoza at QB. UNLV’s defense ranked 36th in YPP allowed and was really good vs the run (16th nationally allowing 109 YPG on the ground) which will put a lot on the shoulders of Harris who is not an accomplished passer. UNLV held 8 opponents to 21 points or less this season including Boise State (who ranks 6th in total offense) in the MWC Championship game. Cal’s defense has been very solid this year and they have been a high level run stopping unit ranking 15th nationally allowing 107 YPG on the ground. That matches up nicely vs UNLV who loves to run the ball averaging 45 rush attempts per game (7th most in the country). This will be one of the top defenses UNLV has faced and we think they’ll struggle. Rebel head coach Odom is already off to Purdue and OC Marion is a hot commodity, including being a lead candidate for the Sacramento State head job, and the distractions for him during this bowl season have been real. The last time these 2 met in 2022 the final score was 20-14 and we think the defenses rule again. Under is the call.