#103 ASA NFL PLAY ON Houston Texans +3.5 over Kansas City Chiefs, Saturday at 1 PM ET - The Chiefs are clearly not the dominant team they have been in the past, but they still stand 13-1 SU on the season. Kansas City has an average Margin of Victory of +5.0PPG (11th) which is insanely low for a team with 13 wins this season. KC is averaging 5.1YPP on the season which ranks 24th in the NFL. In their last 3 games they have managed just 4.5YPP against three defenses that allow 5.3YPP or more on the season. Last Sunday against a Browns defense that allows 5.6YPP the Chiefs struggled offensively with a 4.1YPP average. The Houston Texans have one of the top defenses in terms of EPA, DVOA and overall efficiency rankings. The Texans allow the 3rd fewest YPP at 4.9, have the 11best rushing defenses in terms of total yards allowed and rank 6th in passing yards allowed. Houston allows the 9th fewest points per game at 21.4ppg. Houston has a below average offense this season in most key statistical categories ranking 20th in YPP, 17th in rushing YPG and 19th in passing YPG, but they still manage to score on average 23.4ppg (13th). Kansas City’s defense has shown some holes in recent weeks allowing more yards per play in their last three games (5.5YPP) compared to their season average of 5.2. Houston has 4 less wins on the season, yet their average MOV of +2.0ppg is not much less than KC’s. With Mahomes not 100% for this game with an ankle injury and a stout Texans defense we will gladly fade the Chiefs who are 1-7 ATS their last eight games.