Andrew Luck doesn't have enough of a supporting cast to pull off a second major road upset. The Patriots are 49-7 (87%) in their last 56 home games. New England also is 17-4 ATS the past 21 times when laying single-digits at Gillette Stadium.




The Ravens were a tough matchup against the Patriots because their strengths matched up against New England's weaknesses. That's not the case here.




The Patriots can be run on and they aren't a great pass blocking team. But the Colts lack talent at running back and don't have any outstanding pass rushers. Indy also doesn't have the Ravens' past success and confidence in facing New England.




The Patriots have played and hosted the Colts three times during the last three years, which has been during the Chuck Pagano/Luck era. New England has won these games by 25, 21 and 22 points this season in a 42-20 victory on Nov. 16. Luck has been picked off eight times in these games.




Tom Brady is far more accurate than Peyton Manning and Andy Dalton. The Patriots are averaging 40.8 points in their last five meaningful games. They should be good for at least 30 in this one.




New England's defense should be able to find its form against a Colts offense that lacks a ground attack and is fielding a makeshift offensive line that has been through 11 difference combinations with only one lineman starting every game.