PREMIUM
Stephen Nover's Super Bowl Plus Props
(NFL) New England vs. Seattle,
Point Spread: 2.00 | -105.00 Seattle (Home)
Result: Loss
Point Spread: 2.00 | -105.00 Seattle (Home)
Result: Loss
New England has a strong offense and a decent-to-good defense. Seattle has the best defense I've seen since the 1985-86 Bears and a mediocre offense with the exception of a top-four running back, Marshawn Lynch, and a big-play quarterback, Russell Wilson, who rates with Aaron Rodgers (when healthy) and Andrew Luck as the only quarterbacks who can beat you three ways - with their arm, brain and feet.
Defense trumps offense even in today's watered-down, skewed-to-the-offense NFL. Seattle held Peyton Manning's record-shattering Broncos offense to eight points in last year's Super Bowl. New England's offense isn't as potent.
Tom Brady is 37 and still good. But he's not in his prime. He hasn't faced a defense this strong all season. Brady, Bill Belichick and the rest of the Patriots also have to deal with the underinflated football issue, which is a huge distraction. Don't expect the Patriots to be the beneficiary of many lucky referee calls.
The betting line is too high on New England right now based on how well the Patriots looked in the AFC title game against the Colts and how bad the Seahawks played against the Packers. No doubt the Seahawks stunk in that game and were lucky to survive.
That was Seattle's bad, turnover-filled game. I don't see it happening twice in a row. Prior to the matchup against the Packers, the Seahawks had given up an average of eight points during their last SEVEN games - all victories by double-digits.
Brady gets all the recognition, but previous to the Packers game it was Wilson who held the highest all-time quarterback rating in the playoffs. Wilson's record versus playoff teams this year is 7-1. The Seahawks are 20-7-1 (74 percent) ATS during their last 28 games versus opponents with a winning record.
Here are my prop recommendations (please note that the props are not guaranteed):
Rob Gronkowski UNDER on receiving yards
Props are tilted to the over because the house knows the public wants to root for scoring and big plays. Gronkowski is the best tight end in football. He's going to have a high yardage total attached to him and probably still draw over money so I wouldn't be in a hurry to bet this as it may still go up. The Seahawks, though, are great at stopping tight ends. They have held the opposition's top tight end to an average of 28.1 yards during the last 15 games. The best tight ends they faced during this span were Greg Olsen twice, Zach Ertz, Travis Kelce, Jason Witten and Julius Thomas. Olsen averaged 37 yards a game. Ertz had 39 yards. Kelce was held to 37 yards. Witten managed just 24 yards and Thomas only 17 yards. Thomas was held to just 27 yards in last year's Super Bowl. The Seahawks are so tough against tight ends for several reasons. K.J. Wright probably is the best coverage linebacker in the NFL. Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor are the best safety tandem in the NFL if not of all-time. The Seahawks know Gronkowski is the one stud the Patriots have. They are not going to let him beat them.
Shortest Successful Field Goal OVER 24 1/2 yards
Pete Carroll saw first-hand how Mike McCarthy cost Green Bay a victory by taking short field goals and not going for it on fourth down and short. Carroll is a gambler anyways. Bill Belichick also is a gambler. He's also astute enough to not deflate his offense's confidence by settling for a short field goal if a fourth down play deep in Seattle territory is manageable. Belichick knows, too, the Seahawks just couldn't play for a short Brady pass because of power back LeGarrette Blount.
Russell Wilson UNDER rushing yards
Wilson is the best running quarterback in football, a fact not lost on the Patriots. They will have a full-time spy on Wilson in case he breaks containment. Because they have excellent cornerbacks, including shutdown corner Darrelle Revis, the Patriots will be able to play their safeties in the box looking to stop the run first. The Patriots are very familiar, too, with read-option quarterbacks as their AFC East Division was loaded with them - Geno Smith, Ryan Tannehill and E.J. Manuel.
Seattle to record the most quarterback sacks
The Patriots figure to throw more and Brady is far less mobile than Wilson. The Seahawks are not a big blitzing team, but after failing to apply pressure on Aaron Rodgers in their last game they could have some surprise new wrinkles to generate heat.
Defense trumps offense even in today's watered-down, skewed-to-the-offense NFL. Seattle held Peyton Manning's record-shattering Broncos offense to eight points in last year's Super Bowl. New England's offense isn't as potent.
Tom Brady is 37 and still good. But he's not in his prime. He hasn't faced a defense this strong all season. Brady, Bill Belichick and the rest of the Patriots also have to deal with the underinflated football issue, which is a huge distraction. Don't expect the Patriots to be the beneficiary of many lucky referee calls.
The betting line is too high on New England right now based on how well the Patriots looked in the AFC title game against the Colts and how bad the Seahawks played against the Packers. No doubt the Seahawks stunk in that game and were lucky to survive.
That was Seattle's bad, turnover-filled game. I don't see it happening twice in a row. Prior to the matchup against the Packers, the Seahawks had given up an average of eight points during their last SEVEN games - all victories by double-digits.
Brady gets all the recognition, but previous to the Packers game it was Wilson who held the highest all-time quarterback rating in the playoffs. Wilson's record versus playoff teams this year is 7-1. The Seahawks are 20-7-1 (74 percent) ATS during their last 28 games versus opponents with a winning record.
Here are my prop recommendations (please note that the props are not guaranteed):
Rob Gronkowski UNDER on receiving yards
Props are tilted to the over because the house knows the public wants to root for scoring and big plays. Gronkowski is the best tight end in football. He's going to have a high yardage total attached to him and probably still draw over money so I wouldn't be in a hurry to bet this as it may still go up. The Seahawks, though, are great at stopping tight ends. They have held the opposition's top tight end to an average of 28.1 yards during the last 15 games. The best tight ends they faced during this span were Greg Olsen twice, Zach Ertz, Travis Kelce, Jason Witten and Julius Thomas. Olsen averaged 37 yards a game. Ertz had 39 yards. Kelce was held to 37 yards. Witten managed just 24 yards and Thomas only 17 yards. Thomas was held to just 27 yards in last year's Super Bowl. The Seahawks are so tough against tight ends for several reasons. K.J. Wright probably is the best coverage linebacker in the NFL. Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor are the best safety tandem in the NFL if not of all-time. The Seahawks know Gronkowski is the one stud the Patriots have. They are not going to let him beat them.
Shortest Successful Field Goal OVER 24 1/2 yards
Pete Carroll saw first-hand how Mike McCarthy cost Green Bay a victory by taking short field goals and not going for it on fourth down and short. Carroll is a gambler anyways. Bill Belichick also is a gambler. He's also astute enough to not deflate his offense's confidence by settling for a short field goal if a fourth down play deep in Seattle territory is manageable. Belichick knows, too, the Seahawks just couldn't play for a short Brady pass because of power back LeGarrette Blount.
Russell Wilson UNDER rushing yards
Wilson is the best running quarterback in football, a fact not lost on the Patriots. They will have a full-time spy on Wilson in case he breaks containment. Because they have excellent cornerbacks, including shutdown corner Darrelle Revis, the Patriots will be able to play their safeties in the box looking to stop the run first. The Patriots are very familiar, too, with read-option quarterbacks as their AFC East Division was loaded with them - Geno Smith, Ryan Tannehill and E.J. Manuel.
Seattle to record the most quarterback sacks
The Patriots figure to throw more and Brady is far less mobile than Wilson. The Seahawks are not a big blitzing team, but after failing to apply pressure on Aaron Rodgers in their last game they could have some surprise new wrinkles to generate heat.
