My first look is to the under on early start time games and this matchup has the look of an under to me despite the team's recent high scoring performances.




Oklahoma City is decimated with injuries. Kevin Durant, Serge Ibaka and Nick Collision are out. Enes Kanter is doubtful. That's nearly 60 percent of Oklahoma City's offense missing. The Thunder have no scoring threats in their front line.




Miami ranks fifth defensively in the NBA giving up 97 points a game. That's right where the Heat's average is during their last nine games as they've surrendered an average of 97.3 in regulation during this span.




The under has cashed in 67 percent of Miami's road games this season. The under has cashed 11 of the past 14 times the Heat have been on the road versus an opponent with a winning home record.




Miami is playing well winning seven of 10 this month. The Heat have won a season-high three straight games. They aren't going to want to run with Oklahoma City on the road.




The Thunder should be primed for an intense home effort playing without two of their three star players. I'm expecting a much stronger defensive performance from them after three straight porous defensive games.




Keep in mind Miami is minus Chris Bosh and rank 26th offensively averaging 95 points a game. The Thunder rank No. 2 in the league in defensive field goal percentage. The Heat have shot better than 50 percent in their past three games. That hasn't happened all season - and I don't see Miami staying that hot. Its offense just isn't that good.

(Editor's note: Red-hot pro Stephen Nover is 31-21 on his last 52 NBA premium plays and 26-16 on his last 42 college basketball premium plays for a combined mark of 57-37 (61 percent). Stephen has his NCAA Tournament Game of the Month heading up his Sunday card today.)