Stephen Nover Free Sunday Play
(MLB) San Diego vs. St. Louis,
Total: 7.00 | -110.00 Under
Result: Loss
Call this a play from the gut because it's difficult to justify going over the total on the Padres-Cardinals right now.




Both teams have scored just eight runs during their last five games. The Padres have injuries and lack a leadoff hitter. Melvin Upton is proving as bad as ever batting .163 with 12 strikeouts in 43 at bats since returning from the DL. The Cardinals have little power and a black hole at first base with Matt Adams sidelined.




It's a hunch, but I believe the power drought ends today in a pitching matchup of Ian Kennedy versus Lance Lynn.




The Cardinals have a lifetime .314 batting average against Kennedy, who has a career 9.00 ERA mark versus St. Louis. Kennedy has made three career starts at Busch Stadium giving up 16 earned runs in 16 innings. He has been hurt by shoddy defense all season.




The Cardinals aren't going to hit many homers with Adams and Matt Holliday out. But their hitters are too professional, clutch and adept at getting on base for their scoring woes to keep continuing.




This is a day game, which isn't good for Lynn. He has a 2.30 ERA in night games this season compared to a 5.73 ERA in day action, although the sampling is small.




San Diego is much improved offensively despite its leadoff woes with newcomers Justin Upton, Matt Kemp and a healthy Yonder Alonso, who is batting .307. Jedd Gyorko has risen from the dead to put together five hits in his last six at bats.




There's too much offense here for these two teams to keep playing these low-scoring games especially with both starting pitchers having not fared well in this situation.

(Editor's note: Long-time Vegas pro Stephen Nover cashed his Total of the Year on Saturday and has found another Blockbuster winner on today's card in addition to this free selection.)