J.A. Happ has been quite the story for the Pirates. The career journeyman southpaw - pitching for five teams since 2010 - has a 1.00 ERA in his last six starts.

I know. I wouldn't believe it either. Because of this, Happ opened a pick-to-short favorite at home against Jon Lester.

I can't see Happ continuing this unlikely dominance and I can't pass up the Lester at this price. Lester has given up two runs or fewer during eight of his last 10 starts.

The Cubs are 18-13 versus lefties this season. They have the second-highest road winning percentage in the majors at 39-32.

The Cubs also have fared well against Happ, who is 1-3 with a 6.04 ERA in five lifetime appearances against the Cubs.