Both matchup and special circumstances make this is a very strong under the total play. The line is set too high here - and the oddsmaker knows it because there is heavy juice attached to the under. But it is worth laying. Here's why:

Boston and Montreal are playing an outdoor game with a local starting time of 1 p.m. This is on New Year's Day. The game is part of the Winter Classic festival and is played on a sheet of ice on the floor of a football field - Gillette Stadium - where the Patriots play. Temperatures are forecast to be between 25-42 degrees and sunny.

There were two hockey games played on this outdoor ice yesterday, a woman's matchup and an old-timer's game between alumni of the Canadiens and Bruins. I bring this up because the combination of multiple games and the sun are going to have major affects on the ice making it sloppy, slushy and choppy. This is going to negatively affect passing especially long passes.

I don't see how six goals can be scored especially considering who is in and out of this intense matchup.

Goalie Carey Price, the reigning Hart and Vezina Trophy winner, is back from a leg injury. He's given up three goals in his last two games. When Price is healthy, there's isn't a better goalie. The Canadiens are very strong defensively with Price in net. Only three teams allow fewer shots on goal than Montreal.

The Bruins have to readjust two of their lines with their leading goal scorer Brad Marchand suspended and David Krejci, who is tied for the second-most points on the team, out with an upper body injury.

Marchand sparks the Bruins with his speed and quickness. He's tied for 16th in league scoring with 15 goals. The Bruins rank No. 2 in goals per game at 3.1, hence the oddsmaker's justification for a 5.5 total. But their offense is way down minus Marchand and Krejci. This is going to force the Bruins into playing more of a two-way style with a greater emphasis on defense where they rank in the middle.