Maybe on paper this looks like an even match. But there are several factors working against Arizona State. Add them all up and West Virginia is the clear right choice.

The Sun Devils last played in November. It has been 35 days since they last were in action. Arizona State is 2-4 in its last six games. The Sun Devils have allowed 449 or more yards during their past five games, including a staggering 680 during their final regular-season game, a 48-46 loss to California.

On the season, Arizona ranked 97th in scoring defense surrendering 32.7 points per game and 100th in yards per play at 6.07. The Sun Devils' struggling defense is minus injured linebacker Laiu Moeakiola, their key defender. Moeakiola plays what the Sun Devils call the "spur" spot, which is a hybrid position and the most important position in their defensive scheme. Sophomore linebacker DJ Calhoun is replacing Moeakiola. He's comfortable on the weak side, lacking experience at "spur" linebacker.

West Virginia can take advantage with an offense averaging 33.3 points. The Mountaineers have two strong running backs, a versatile quarterback and a big play wide receiver in Shelton Gibson, who averages 22.5 yards a catch.

I like the Mountaineers defense better than Arizona State. West Virginia yields 23.2 points a game, which ranked 39th and forced 31 turnovers. Only four teams had more takeaways. West Virginia has given up only nine rushing touchdowns, fifth-stingiest in the nation. The Sun Devils don't have a lot of experience facing a 3-3-5 stack defense and don't have their offensive coordinator, Mike Norvell, who is headed to Memphis.

Arizona State has failed to cover in six of its last seven bowl games, including not covering the past two years against Texas Tech and Duke.