PREMIUM
Stephen Nover's ESPN Sunday Night Game of Month
(MLB) San Francisco vs. St. Louis,
Money Line: -141.00 St. Louis (Home)
Result: Win
Money Line: -141.00 St. Louis (Home)
Result: Win
The lay price is justified here. Carlos Martinez is a very good pitcher who is back on track, while 35-year-old Jake Peavy is close to washed-up and is at his worst pitching on the road.
The Giants are down starting outfielders Hunter Pence and Angel Pagan. Pence's loss is huge. San Francisco is 57-65 the past two years when they haven't had Pence compared to 62-38 when he's been in the lineup. The Giants average one run less per game when Pence doesn't play going from 4.9 runs to 3.9.
San Francisco has dropped 20 of its last 26 away games when playing an above .500 foe. That trend should hold up here considering Peavy has a 7.20 road ERA. The Giants have lost the last eight times Peavy has pitched on the road against an opponent with a winning record.
This line could be priced even higher but Peavy is coming off his best game of the season, throwing a one-hitter in seven innings this past Tuesday. That was against the Braves, though, who have the worst record in the majors and the worst offense ranking last in runs and batting average. Prior to facing the downtrodden Braves, Peavy had allowed 23 earned runs in his last six starts spanning 27 1/3 innings.
Going back to 2014, Peavy is 3-17 before the All-Star break.
Martinez had a rough May, but was back to form in his last start shutting out the Brewers, 6-0, this past Monday. St. Louis is 13-3 the last 16 times when Martinez pitches with five days of rest. The Cardinals also are 19-5 during Martinez's last 24 starts following a quality start.
The Giants are down starting outfielders Hunter Pence and Angel Pagan. Pence's loss is huge. San Francisco is 57-65 the past two years when they haven't had Pence compared to 62-38 when he's been in the lineup. The Giants average one run less per game when Pence doesn't play going from 4.9 runs to 3.9.
San Francisco has dropped 20 of its last 26 away games when playing an above .500 foe. That trend should hold up here considering Peavy has a 7.20 road ERA. The Giants have lost the last eight times Peavy has pitched on the road against an opponent with a winning record.
This line could be priced even higher but Peavy is coming off his best game of the season, throwing a one-hitter in seven innings this past Tuesday. That was against the Braves, though, who have the worst record in the majors and the worst offense ranking last in runs and batting average. Prior to facing the downtrodden Braves, Peavy had allowed 23 earned runs in his last six starts spanning 27 1/3 innings.
Going back to 2014, Peavy is 3-17 before the All-Star break.
Martinez had a rough May, but was back to form in his last start shutting out the Brewers, 6-0, this past Monday. St. Louis is 13-3 the last 16 times when Martinez pitches with five days of rest. The Cardinals also are 19-5 during Martinez's last 24 starts following a quality start.