You better have a lot of confidence in a starting pitcher to lay a price this high especially when the offense hasn't been great. But I have that faith in Noah Syndergaard. He just might be the best right-hander in baseball - at least when he pitches at Citi Field where he has a 1.80 ERA and 64-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

The Mets have never lost in five games when Syndergaard has been home chalk of $1.60 or higher. The Royals don't figure to end that streak averaging less than 3.1 runs a game on the road and not being able to start DH Kendrys Morales because of playing in a National League park.

Kansas City has the best home record in baseball at 25-8. But the Royals are not the same team on the road going 13-24, including losing 10 of their past 12 away from Kauffman Stadium.

The two major concerns about backing the Mets at this high of a price is New York's offense and bullpen, which went 8 2/3 innings last night. However, Syndergaard is just 23 and pitching on extra rest. He's gone into the seventh inning during 62 percent of his starts this year. Closer Jeurys Familia is the Mets' key reliever - and he's fresh. Familia hadn't pitched since Sunday until throwing 14 pitches on Tuesday night in earning a save.

Lefty Danny Duffy is going for Kansas City. The Mets have a winning record versus southpaws. They scored 11 runs off the Pirates and Jeff Locke the last time they faced a lefty. Duffy has done a credible job since joining Kansas City's starting rotation in the middle of May going 2-1 with a 3.25 ERA. But he's been prone to the long ball and isn't close to Syndergaard's stature.

(Editor's note: Stephen Nover is fresh off cashing a 16-run totals winner on Tuesday! His top play today is his 10-Dime Totals Destroyer. Be sure not to miss it as Stephen is 10-5-1 on his last 16 MLB over/unders.)