Jose Fernandez takes the mound today for the Marlins. We need to establish two things about Fernandez that seem to be escaping the oddsmaker's attention. Fernandez has been far from dominant since the All-Star break - 1-2 with a 3.86 ERA - and he's not good on the road where he's 3-4 with a 3.93 ERA this season.

The Marlins haven't been that good either dropping 10 of their last 15 games.

Yet Fernandez's reputation registers so strong with the marketplace that the Marlins are priced way too high today facing Cincinnati's most consistent pitcher.

Dan Straily has outpitched Fernandez the past month posting a 2.13 ERA in his last six starts. Hitters are batting .215 against him on the season. The Reds have won each of his past six starts.

The Reds' bullpen can be brutal. But the Marlins are down their best reliever with closer A.J. Ramos on the DL.

I understand you can't make the Reds a favorite against Fernandez. But this price is heavily, heavily inflated.